East Bay Could Be California’s Closest Congressional Battleground
Forward Article to a Friend
Print Article
I flew into California on Saturday, September 16 to get ready to move in to Stanford. My family and I decided to spend the day in San Francisco. Ever the political junkie, as we drove into the city, the radio caught my attention as I heard my first California political advertisement. Promising large tax hikes and government ineffectiveness, the ad attempted to make it clear that Jerry McNerney, the Democratic candidate in California’s 11th congressional district, was too big of a risk for its residents to take.
Political analysts are quick to note that attack ads often say far more than their words might let on: they often indicate that the campaign opposing the candidate in question is falling behind, or at least feels threatened. Here, that campaign is the incumbent’s, Republican Rep. Richard Pombo of Tracy, CA. Pombo, who has a seven-term tenure, is a known entity to his district, which includes most of San Joaquin County and parts of Alameda, Contra Costa, and our very own Santa Clara County. Often, entrenched incumbents like Pombo coast to re-election, but a slew of developments, not to mention national anti-Republican sentiments, have made this race one of the most interesting in the country.
Pombo, a rancher by trade, drew national attention this year for a few near-infamous reasons. Like many Republicans falling from grace this year, Pombo allegedly has connections to convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who was charged with defrauding Indian tribes and corrupting public officials. Additionally, Pombo serves as chairman of the resources committee in the House of Representatives, and last year sponsored a bill that arguably dismantles the Endangered Species Act, a cornerstone of environmental legislation.
Such action drew the ire of a former Bay Area Republican congressman, Pete McCloskey, known for his very liberal positions on many issues, including the environment. While incumbents are usually unopposed in primaries, McCloskey decided to challenge Pombo. Though McCloskey lost, he held Pombo to 62%, unusually low for an incumbent.
Meanwhile, the Democratic side held an equally noteworthy primary. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, the Democratic Party’s apparatus for House races, backed Steve Filson, a pilot and former member of the Air Force. Despite his support, Democrats rejected Filson and nominated Jerry McNerney, Pombo’s 2004 challenger. McNerney lost to Pombo by a 61%-39% margin in 2004.
Two years ago, however, no one knew about connections to Abramoff, no legislation on the Endangered Species Act had been passed, and Republicans picked-up seats in Congress. Today, many Democratic polls and some independent polls show Pombo and McNerney statistically tied. Pombo’s campaign, on the other hand, refuses to release internal polling, but claim that their numbers have never shown McNerney polling higher than 40%. President Bush’s visit for a fundraiser on Pombo’s behalf a few weeks ago is a further sign of Pombo’s vulnerability, because in a time Republicans are redirecting funds to battleground districts, it shows that Pombo needs the money to make his case in the last stretch of the campaign.
Stanford students are finding ways to get involved in a race that could prove close. According to freshman Jessica Hinojosa, the Stanford Democrats have canvassed in support of Jerry McNerney, without campaigning negatively. “There’s a lot of conservative ideals that I think have a lot of value to them, like family values, or fiscal conservatism,” Hinojosa said. However, when it comes to many of Pombo’s environmental positions, she “really just can’t agree with that.”
Many analysts have looked into the role of gerrymandering in this year’s battleground races: why is it that in some states, like Connecticut, every single Republican incumbent is in a very tight race, and in California, all fifty-three seats have some likelihood of re-electing its representative. Richard Pombo has a lot of goodwill in his district for efforts at protecting property rights and bringing home the bacon. If I had to make a prediction today, I would expect Pombo to win, but should the Democratic wave in November be strong enough, he too could be swept out with it. So grab some popcorn, sit back, and enjoy the show, because we in the San Francisco Bay Area could witness a race that could determine which party controls the House of Representatives for the next two years.
