Harper in the North: The Rise of Conservatism in Canada
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In September 2003, The Economist looked north and waxed poetic about America’s foremost – yet oft-neglected – ally and trading partner. “A cautious case can be made,” the newspaper suggested, “that Canada is now rather cool.” But just two years later, Foreign Editor Peter David was forced to reexamine his newspaper’s optimistic stance on the US’ northern neighbor. Canada may still be cool, he argued, but its “coolness” is being torn apart and bandied about from within. Canada, in other words, will be Canada’s downfall.
Canadians are a funny breed. More naturally liberal and welcoming of outsiders than Americans ( Canada is the rare developed country whose population actually supports immigration), and fiercely protective of its liberal “welfare state” institutions (universal healthcare, and more recently equality of marriage), Canadians are justly proud of an enlightened view of productivity, individualism, and the country’s role in the global system. This perspective has paid dividends: for nearly ten years now, through a combination of fiscal discipline and free trade opportunism, Canada has recorded successive budget surpluses, making the country a certifiable anomaly among the G8. In fact, Canada’s so-called “big government” has had by far the best track record among G8 for keeping deficits small and economic growth high. Meanwhile, Canadians are happy, employed, and stable, reveling in the parliamentary stasis of more than twelve straight years of Liberal Party governance.
But somehow stability, happiness, and growth do not necessarily breed contentment. Canada is also a nation polarized: the West versus the East, Quebec versus the rest of Canada, the Maritime (eastern) provinces versus the rest of Canada, the big cities versus the rural outposts. In each case, the claim on behalf of one group is that their views have been marginalized by the federal government in Ottawa, while the argument of the other side is that they are putting more into the country than they are getting out. Canada, although Canadians are loathe to admit it, is in the throes of an identity crisis: more American and dependent on the US than Canadians care to admit, Canadians are also unable to mobilize behind a single edition of nationalism, instead dispersing to very distinct and often anti-nationalist identities. In Quebec, the separatist movement – which resulted in a barely-failed referendum in 1995 – has been re-ignited, and the specter of an independent Quebecois state is again haunting the Canadian nation. Equally troubling, Canada’s wealthy, renegade West is literally bathing in the proceeds of a booming oil economy and ready to chart a distinctly Western – and not necessarily mainstream Canadian – path for its residents.
The impetus for this dissatisfaction is largely rooted in “ Canada’s Watergate,” the Gomery Inquiry, a kickback sponsorship scandal that tars the last Liberal administration and dogs the reelection hopes of this beleaguered version of the Liberal Party. The poster boy of Canada’s economic revival, current Prime Minister (and ex-Finance Minister) Paul Martin, has been punished for his party’s corruption by first being handed a disappointing minority government in the last federal election less than two years ago, and now facing the probability of no Liberal government at all. Against conventional Canadian political wisdom and quite frankly conventional Canadian values, Canadians appear poised to elect a shocking Conservative majority when they go to the polls on January 23rd.
This would be a stunning turnaround from just three years ago, when Canada was in the midst of a seemingly unimpeachable relationship with the Liberal party, which was preparing to anoint one of its most popular leaders ever, PM Martin. Still, a senior Liberal strategist admitted recently that the Conservative Party’s ten-point lead in the polls (and more importantly their lead in the province of Ontario, a traditional Liberal stronghold) means that the chance of the Liberal regaining the momentum in a disastrous campaign is virtually nil. Canadians had better get used to the sight of Conservative leader Stephen Harper, often branded as too “extremist,” in the Prime Minister’s throne come February.
In truth, the Canadian political spectrum is too narrow for Canada’s most fundamental political value structure to be seriously threatened. The Conservative Party has reaffirmed its commitment to universal healthcare and although Harper plans on presenting a referendum on gay marriage, it is likely that this sort of measure will not change the status quo. A Conservative government would move Canada closer to the US on many issues (Harper would have supported the US invasion of Iraq, while Liberal ex-PM Jean Chrétien did not), but given the centrist Liberal Party’s propensity for campaigning from the center-left but governing from the center-right, it would be a stretch to say that the world will be faced with a whole new Canada post-election.
Still, assuming a Conservative majority, Harper will have a serious opportunity to determine a relative unique view for Canadian progress. He also faces some serious challenges. Foremost among these is improving Canadian unity. He will have the natural advantage of a historic base in the disenfranchised West, but the added problem of a virtually-assured sweep by the separatist Bloc Quebecois in Quebec. The Conservatives have never seriously been considered an option in Quebec, and there are legitimate questions about Harper’s ability to be the spokesperson for Canadian nationalism and the federalist cause.
Just as crucially, Harper must show that he has what it takes to be a strong fiscal manager, or else he will draw inevitable unfavorable comparisons to Martin and the Liberals. His planned tax cuts will be a help to middle-class Canadians, but to descend Canada back into the realm of repeated fiscal deficits would be disastrous both for the country and for his hopes of reelection. President Bush will no doubt be very happy if the Conservatives win on January 23rd, especially given repeated disputes between the Liberal government and his Republican administration. But Harper will be tasked with maintaining a fine line between forcing an unnecessarily adversarial relationship on Canada’s closest ally, and directly pandering to the Americans, as the last Conservative PM, Brian Mulroney, did famously. Harper should be advised: Canada needs the US, but the US also needs Canada.
Finally, Harper must recall that he has been entrusted guardian of Canadian values, a far less abstract set of opinions on the world than their counterpart values to the south. Extremism, in Canadian terms, is never a virtue. Without sacrificing what originally made Canada cool, Harper and his Conservative Party will be expected to make Canada yet cooler.
